"collapsing" any uncertainty, but when an arm is passive, no observation is made,

Macroeconomic conditions influence the environments in which health systems operate, yet their value as leading signals of health system capacity has not been systematically evaluated. In this study, we examine whether selected macroeconomic indicators contain predictive information for several capacity-related public health targets, including employment in the health and social assistance workforce, new business applications in the sector, and health care construction spending. Using monthly U.S. time series data, we evaluate multiple forecasting approaches, including neural network models with different optimization strategies, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous macroeconomic indicators, under alternative model fitting designs. Across evaluation settings, we find that macroeconomic indicators provide a consistent and reproducible predictive signal for some public health targets, particularly workforce and infrastructure measures, while other targets exhibit weaker or less stable predictability. Models emphasizing stability and implicit regularization tend to perform more reliably during periods of economic volatility. These findings suggest that macroeconomic indicators may serve as useful upstream signals for digital public health monitoring, while underscoring the need for careful model selection and validation when translating economic trends into health system forecasting tools.

We study low-rank tensor-product B-spline (TPBS) models for regression tasks and investigate Dirichlet energy as a measure of smoothness. We show that TPBS models admit a closed-form expression for the Dirichlet energy, and reveal scenarios where perfect interpolation is possible with exponentially small Dirichlet energy. This renders global Dirichlet energy-based regularization ineffective. To address this limitation, we propose a novel regularization strategy based on local Dirichlet energies defined on small hypercubes centered at the training points. Leveraging pretrained TPBS models, we also introduce two estimators for inference from incomplete samples. Comparative experiments with neural networks demonstrate that TPBS models outperform neural networks in the overfitting regime for most datasets, and maintain competitive performance otherwise. Overall, TPBS models exhibit greater robustness to overfitting and consistently benefit from regularization, while neural networks are more sensitive to overfitting and less effective in leveraging regularization.

The man who made India digital isn't done yet Nandan Nilekani can't stop trying to push India into the future. He started nearly 30 years ago, masterminding an ongoing experiment in technological state capacity that started with Aadhaar--the world's largest digital identity system. Using Aadhaar as the bedrock, Nilekani and people working with him went on to build a sprawling collection of free, interoperating online tools that add up to nothing less than a digital infrastructure for society, covering government services, banking, and health care. They offer convenience and access that would be eye-popping in wealthy countries a tenth of India's size. At 70 years old, Nilekani should be retired. But he has a few more ideas.

Autoregressive forecasting is central to predictive control in diabetes and hemodynamic management, where different operating zones carry different clinical risks. Standard models trained with teacher forcing suffer from exposure bias, yielding unstable multi-step forecasts for closed-loop use. We introduce Soft-Token Trajectory Forecasting (SoTra), which propagates continuous probability distributions (``soft tokens'') to mitigate exposure bias and learn calibrated, uncertainty-aware trajectories. A risk-aware decoding module then minimizes expected clinical harm. In glucose forecasting, SoTra reduces average zone-based risk by 18\%; in blood-pressure forecasting, it lowers effective clinical risk by approximately 15\%. These improvements support its use in safety-critical predictive control.

Abstract-- Assigning tasks to robots often involves supplying the robot with an overarching goal, such as through natural language, and then relying on the robot to uncover and execute a plan to achieve that goal. In many settings common to human-robot interaction, however, the world is only partially observable to the robot, requiring that it create plans under uncertainty. Although many probabilistic planning algorithms exist for this purpose, these algorithms can be inefficient if executed with the robot's limited computational resources, or may require more steps than expected to achieve the goal. We thereby created a new, lightweight, probabilistic planning algorithm, Plan-Orchestrated Tree Assembly for Lookahead (POrTAL), that combines the strengths of two baseline planning algorithms, FF-Replan and POMCP . In a series of case studies, we demonstrate POrTAL's ability to quickly arrive at solutions that outperform these baselines in terms of number of steps. We additionally demonstrate how POrTAL performs under varying temporal constraints. The ability of modern robots to respond to arbitrary user requests has advanced considerably in recent years. This advancement is in large part due to robots' ability to autonomously plan their own actions. When receiving a goal such as "bring me a cup of coffee," for example, a robot can calculate the minimum number of steps required to achieve this goal: obtain the coffee grinds, proceeding to the coffee maker, load the grinds, and so on. In many scenarios common to human-robot interaction, however, this planning must be performed under considerable uncertainty.

In time series editing, we aim to modify some properties of a given time series without altering others. For example, when analyzing a hospital patient's blood pressure, we may add a sudden early drop and observe how it impacts their future while preserving other conditions. Existing diffusion-based editors rely on rigid, predefined attribute vectors as conditions and produce all-or-nothing edits through sampling. This attribute- and sampling-based approach limits flexibility in condition format and lacks customizable control over editing strength. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Instruction-based Time Series Editing, where users specify intended edits using natural language. This allows users to express a wider range of edits in a more accessible format. We then introduce InstructTime, the first instruction-based time series editor. InstructTime takes in time series and instructions, embeds them into a shared multi-modal representation space, then decodes their embeddings to generate edited time series. By learning a structured multi-modal representation space, we can easily interpolate between embeddings to achieve varying degrees of edit. To handle local and global edits together, we propose multi-resolution encoders. In our experiments, we use synthetic and real datasets and find that InstructTime is a state-of-the-art time series editor: InstructTime achieves high-quality edits with controllable strength, can generalize to unseen instructions, and can be easily adapted to unseen conditions through few-shot learning.

One of the greatest challenges for detecting moving objects in the solar system from wide-field survey data is determining whether a signal indicates a true object or is due to some other source, like noise. Object verification has relied heavily on human eyes, which usually results in significant labor costs. In order to address this limitation and reduce the reliance on manual intervention, we propose a multi-input convolutional neural network integrated with a convolutional block attention module. This method is specifically tailored to enhance the moving object detection system that we have developed and used previously. The current method introduces two innovations. This first one is a multi-input architecture that processes multiple stacked images simultaneously. The second is the incorporation of the convolutional block attention module which enables the model to focus on essential features in both spatial and channel dimensions. These advancements facilitate efficient learning from multiple inputs, leading to more robust detection of moving objects. The performance of the model is evaluated on a dataset consisting of approximately 2,000 observational images. We achieved an accuracy of nearly 99% with AUC (an Area Under the Curve) of >0.99. These metrics indicate that the proposed model achieves excellent classification performance. By adjusting the threshold for object detection, the new model reduces the human workload by more than 99% compared to manual verification.