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Diagnostics for Individual-Level Prediction Instability in Machine Learning for Healthcare

Miller, Elizabeth W., Blume, Jeffrey D.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In healthcare, predictive models increasingly inform patient-level decisions, yet little attention is paid to the variability in individual risk estimates and its impact on treatment decisions. For overparameterized models, now standard in machine learning, a substantial source of variability often goes undetected. Even when the data and model architecture are held fixed, randomness introduced by optimization and initialization can lead to materially different risk estimates for the same patient. This problem is largely obscured by standard evaluation practices, which rely on aggregate performance metrics (e.g., log-loss, accuracy) that are agnostic to individual-level stability. As a result, models with indistinguishable aggregate performance can nonetheless exhibit substantial procedural arbitrariness, which can undermine clinical trust. We propose an evaluation framework that quantifies individual-level prediction instability by using two complementary diagnostics: empirical prediction interval width (ePIW), which captures variability in continuous risk estimates, and empirical decision flip rate (eDFR), which measures instability in threshold-based clinical decisions. We apply these diagnostics to simulated data and GUSTO-I clinical dataset. Across observed settings, we find that for flexible machine-learning models, randomness arising solely from optimization and initialization can induce individual-level variability comparable to that produced by resampling the entire training dataset. Neural networks exhibit substantially greater instability in individual risk predictions compared to logistic regression models. Risk estimate instability near clinically relevant decision thresholds can alter treatment recommendations. These findings that stability diagnostics should be incorporated into routine model validation for assessing clinical reliability.



SILENCE: Lightweight Protection for Privacy in Offloaded Speech Understanding

Neural Information Processing Systems

Speech serves as a ubiquitous input interface for embedded mobile devices. Cloud-based solutions, while offering powerful speech understanding services, raise significant concerns regarding user privacy. To address this, disentanglement-based encoders have been proposed to remove sensitive information from speech signals without compromising the speech understanding functionality. However, these encoders demand high memory usage and computation complexity, making them impractical for resource-constrained wimpy devices. Our solution is based on a key observation that speech understanding hinges on long-term dependency knowledge of the entire utterance, in contrast to privacy-sensitive elements that are short-term dependent. Exploiting this observation, we propose SILENCE, a lightweight system that selectively obscuring short-term details, without damaging the long-term dependent speech understanding performance. The crucial part of SILENCE is a differential mask generator derived from interpretable learning to automatically configure the masking process. We have implemented SILENCE on the STM32H7 microcontroller and evaluate its efficacy under different attacking scenarios. Our results demonstrate that SILENCE offers speech understanding performance and privacy protection capacity comparable to existing encoders, while achieving up to 53.3 speedup and 134.1 reduction in memory footprint.



Generalized Sliced Wasserstein Distances

Soheil Kolouri, Kimia Nadjahi, Umut Simsekli, Roland Badeau, Gustavo Rohde

Neural Information Processing Systems

Inthis paper,wefirst clarify themathematical connection between the SW distance and the Radon transform. We then utilize the generalized Radon transform to define a new family of distances for probability measures, which we call generalized sliced-Wasserstein (GSW) distances.





MedSafetyBench: Evaluating and Improving the Medical Safety of Large Language Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

However, there is little to no understanding of the notion of medical safety in the context of LLMs, let alone how to evaluate and improve it. To address this gap, we first define the notion of medical safety in LLMs based on the Principles of Medical Ethics set forth by the American Medical Association.